2015 VPR, Week 13

29 Nov

bama elephant

Team Record Victory Points
1. Alabama 11-1 68
2. Clemson 12-0 67
3. Michigan St 11-1 66
4. Oklahoma 11-1 65
5. Ohio St 11-1 62
6. Iowa 12-0 57
7. Notre Dame 10-2 53
8. Northwestern 10-2 50
9. Stanford 10-2 50
10. Florida 10-2 49
11. Houston 11-1 44
12. Navy 9-2 44
13. Florida St 10-2 44
14. Michigan 9-3 44
15. Oklahoma St 10-2 43
16. North Carolina 11-1 42
17. TCU 10-2 42
18. Western Kentucky 10-2 41
19. LSU 8-3 41
20. Mississippi 9-3 41
21. Oregon 9-3 40
22. Memphis 9-3 39
23. USC 8-4 39
24. Temple 10-2 38
25. Utah 9-3 38

This Week’s Key Matchups

#24 Temple at #11 Houston, Noon
#10 Florida vs #1 Alabama, 4:00 PM
#9 Stanford vs #23 USC, 7:45 PM
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Iowa, 8:00 PM
#2 Clemson vs #16 North Carolina, 8:00 PM

2015 VPR, Week 12

26 Nov

paw_orange

Team Record Victory Points
1. Clemson 11-0 59
2. Alabama 10-1 56
3. Michigan St 10-1 54
4. Notre Dame 10-1 52
5. Oklahoma 10-1 49
6. Iowa 11-0 48
7. Ohio St 10-1 48
8. Florida 10-1 47
9. Navy 9-1 43
10. Northwestern 9-2 43
11. Michigan 9-2 41
12. Stanford 9-2 41
13. Oklahoma St 10-1 40
14. Toledo 9-1 36
15. Baylor 9-1 34
16. Temple 9-2 34
17. Mississippi St 8-3 34
18. Oregon 8-3 34
19. Memphis 8-3 34
20. North Carolina 10-1 33
21. Houston 10-1 32
22. Utah 8-3 32
23. Florida St 9-2 31
24. LSU 7-3 31
25. UCLA 8-3 31

This Week’s Key Matchups

Marshall at Western Kentucky, Friday, Noon
#9 Navy at #21 Houston, Friday, Noon
#15 Baylor at TCU, Friday, 7:30 PM
#7 Ohio St at #11 Michigan, Noon
Penn St at #3 Michigan St, 3:30 PM
#25 UCLA at USC, 3:30 PM
Mississippi at #17 Mississippi St, 7:15 PM
#23 Florida St at #8 Florida, 7:30 PM
Texas A&M at #24 LSU, 7:30 PM
#4 Notre Dame at #12 Stanford, 7:30 PM
#5 Oklahoma at #13 Oklahoma St, 8:00 PM

2015 VPR, Week 11

19 Nov

paw_orange

 

Team Record Victory Points
1. Clemson 10-0 52
2. Alabama 9-1 51
3. Ohio St 10-0 45
4. Notre Dame 9-1 45
5. Iowa 10-0 42
6. Florida 9-1 40
7. Michigan St 9-1 38
8. Oklahoma St 10-0 37
9. Houston 10-0 35
10. Oklahoma 9-1 35
11. Memphis 8-2 34
12. Navy 8-1 33
13. Northwestern 8-2 33
14. Stanford 8-2 32
15. Utah 8-2 32
16. LSU 7-2 31
17. Michigan 8-2 30
18. USC 7-3 30
19. Florida St 8-2 28
20. Toledo 8-1 27
21. North Carolina 9-1 26
22. TCU 9-1 26
23. Bowling Green 8-2 25
24. Mississippi St 7-3 25
25. Penn St 7-3 24

This Week’s Key Matchups

#20 Toledo – 44, #23 Bowing Green – 28, Tuesday
#17 Michigan at #25 Penn St, Noon
#11 Memphis at Temple, Noon
#16 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 PM
#13 Northwestern at Wisconsin, 3:30 PM
#7 Michigan St at #3 Ohio St, 3:30 PM
#18 USC at Oregon, 3:30 PM
UCLA at #15 Utah, 3:30 PM
#24 Mississippi St at Arkansas, 7:00 PM
Baylor at #8 Oklahoma St, 7:30 PM
#22 TCU at #10 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM

2015 VPR, Week 9

6 Nov

Michigan_State_Spartans

Team Record Victory Points
1. Michigan St 8-0 35
2. Clemson 8-0 34
3. Ohio St 8-0 32
4. LSU 7-0 31
5. Iowa 8-0 29
6. Florida 7-1 29
7. Memphis 8-0 28
8. Alabama 7-1 28
9. Notre Dame 7-1 28
10. Utah 7-1 26
11. Stanford 7-1 25
12. Penn St 7-2 24
13. TCU 8-0 22
14. Mississippi 7-2 22
15. Texas A&M 6-2 21
16. Michigan 6-2 21
17. Northwestern 6-2 21
18. Toledo 7-0 20
19. Oklahoma St 8-0 20
20. Temple 7-1 20
21. Mississippi St 6-2 20
22. UCLA 6-2 20
23. BYU 6-2 19
24. Navy 6-1 18
25. Florida St 7-1 18

2015 VPR, Week 8

26 Oct

lsu football

Top Five

The LSU Tigers continue to spread the gospel of Leonard Fournette, this time to the top spot in the Victory Point Rankings.  #1 LSU vanquished their second straight Top 40 opponent, this time a convincing home win over #32 Western Kentucky.  The Tigers take Halloween off before traveling to Tuscaloosa to face #6 Alabama in another classic SEC West showdown.

Michigan St joins Ohio St at #2 this week.  If both teams continue to play well, their November 21st game in the Horseshoe will act as a de facto play in game for the college football playoff.  This week Michigan St pulled away from a respectable Indiana team in the fourth quarter, easily defeating a team that the Buckeyes struggled with.  Ohio St obliterated a mediocre Rutgers squad in New Jersey.  Both teams remain idle this coming weekend before continuing in conference play.

#4 Clemson joins the Top Five this week.  They announced their contention with a 58-0 thrashing of Miami (FL).  The Tigers not only handed the once proud Hurricanes their worst loss in school history, the beatdown also served as a impetus for the firing of Canes coach Al Golden.  Dabo killed a man (‘s career).  On Halloween, Clemson travels to NC State, a team far worse than its 5-2 record would indicate.

#5 Iowa took the week off, but still managed to hang onto their spot.  The Hawkeyes host lackluster Maryland on Halloween.

Last week’s top team, Utah, tumbled all the way to #9 after a surprising (at least outside of Vegas) loss to #37 USC.  Turnovers ended the Utes Cinderella run.  They came into the Los Angeles Coliseum with a +12 turnover margin but quarterback Travis Wilson threw four interceptions while the Trojans stayed perfect on the night.  Even the most talented teams have trouble overcoming a -4 game, and Utah does’t have a history of Top Five recruiting classes. Utah should bounce back this weekend against the subpar Oregon St Beavers.

Team Record Victory Points
1. LSU 7-0 29
T2. Michigan St 8-0 29
T2. Ohio St 8-0 29
4. Clemson 7-0 25
5. Iowa 7-0 24
6. Alabama 7-1 24
7. Memphis 7-0 23
8. Florida 6-1 21
9. Utah 6-1 21
10. Temple 7-0 19
11. Penn St 6-2 19
12. Northwestern 6-2 19
13. TCU 7-0 18
14. Notre Dame 6-1 18
15. Mississippi St 6-2 18
16. Stanford 6-1 17
17. Michigan 5-2 17
18. Toledo 7-0 16
19. Oklahoma 6-1 16
20. Texas A&M 5-2 16
21. UCLA 5-2 16
22. Mississippi 6-2 16
23. BYU 6-2 16
24. Wisconsin 6-2 15
T25. Baylor 7-0 14
T25. Oklahoma St 7-0 14

This Week’s Key Matchups

North Carolina at Pittsburgh, Thursday, 7:00 PM
USC at California, 3:00 PM
#14 Notre Dame at #10 Temple, 8:00 PM
#16 Stanford at Washington St, 10:30 PM

2015 VPR, Week 7

18 Oct

utah utes

 

Welcome to the first Victory Point Rankings of 2015.  As always, take these rankings with a grain of salt.  These teams have performed very well so far this season, but the ranking tends towards volatility until we have a sufficient number of games on each team’s resume.  I wait until half way through the regular season to release the first poll for just that reason.  Also, many of these teams have yet to get into the bulk of their conference schedule.  A weak conference will drag down an early surprise like #11 Memphis, but a stronger conference can help help someone like #21 Baylor who has talent but tends to schedule a steady diet of cupcakes out of conference.  Since I am completely fed up with my alma mater right now, let’s move on to the Top Five.

Top Five

#1 Utah has surprised everyone with just how impressively they have played in the early going.  The undefeated Utes have played five of their first six games against teams with winning records including wins over #12 Michigan, #20 California, and #40 Arizona St.  The remainder of their schedule appears manageable with only a home game against #29 UCLA looking like a real test.  Utah certainly controls its own destiny in the fight for a top four spot.

#2 Ohio St has looked subpar in stretches, but like a true championship team, they always manage to pull out the victory.  Yesterday’s win over #14 Penn St and an early nail biter versus #39 Indiana season a resume of more average fare.  Their two biggest games bookend Thanksgiving: first #4 Michigan St then arch rival #12 Michigan.

#3 LSU likely has the best player in the country, running back Leonard Fournette, but yesterday’s triumph against #6 Florida, the #1 team in the country heading into the week, served as a statement of purpose.  The Tigers want to win it all.  LSU also has early victories over #24 Mississippi St and #35 Auburn.  As with any team in the SEC West, a brutal run still remains.  LSU plays #7 Alabama, #32 Mississippi, and #13 Texas A&M in a four week stretch in November.  Emerge from that unscathed and they will certainly climb into the top spot.

#4 Michigan St could count itself lucky to sit here.  #12 Michigan outplayed the Spartans for most of four quarters, leading the entire way.  But great teams know how to keep it close and give themselves extra opportunities.  State never let the Wolverines get too far ahead.  The Spartans have played at a consistently high level of the last few years.  They have a familiarity with high pressure situations.  When Michigan botched a punt on the last play of the game, Michigan St scooped and scored for the game winning touchdown.  Not every win on the way to a championship comes in dominating fashion.  Sometimes you need a little luck.

Michigan St hasn’t played another team in the Top 40 yet, but they’ll have an opportunity to build on this impressive win with games against #39 Indiana, #2 Ohio St, and #14 Penn St sill on the schedule.

#5 Iowa’s undefeated start to the season has surprised even more people than Utah.  The Solid Verbal, my favorite college football podcast, even has a running joke about Talking to Your Kids About an Undefeated Iowa.  Coach Kirk Ferentz seems to keep his job by doing this every four or five years.  Iowa takes advantage of week schedule and makes a run at a New Year’s bowl.  But while the Hawkeyes haven’t played any juggernauts, they haven’t exactly feasted on cupcakes either this year.  Iowa dominated #16 Northwestern on Saturday to add to wins against #26 Pittsburgh, #33 Illinois, and #38 Wisconsin.  The schedule actually gets easier from here with only #39 Indiana standing in the way of 12-0.  Iowa could take the patented Wisconsin scenic drive through the West into the Big Ten Championship Game, where they will get subsequently stomped by one one of the States.

Team Record Victory Points
1. Utah 6-0 25
2. Ohio St 7-0 23
3. LSU 6-0 22
4. Michigan St 7-0 22
5. Iowa 7-0 21
6. Florida 6-1 20
7. Alabama 6-1 19
8. Clemson 6-0 18
9. TCU 7-0 17
10. Florida St 6-0 16
11. Memphis 6-0 16
12. Michigan 5-2 16
13. Texas A&M 5-1 15
14. Penn St 5-2 15
15. Notre Dame 6-1 14
16. Northwestern 5-2 14
17. BYU 5-2 14
18. Temple 6-0 13
19. Toledo 6-0 13
20. California 5-1 13
T21. Baylor 6-0 12
T21. Oklahoma St 6-0 12
23. Stanford 5-1 12
24. Mississippi St 5-2 12
25. Oklahoma 5-1 11

Key Matchups

#20 California at UCLA, Thursday, 9:00 PM
Wisconsin at Illinois, 3:30 PM
Indiana at #4 Michigan St, 3:30 PM
#13 Texas A&M at Mississippi, 7:00 PM
Western Kentucky at #3 LSU, 7:00 PM

2014 VPR Final Standings

26 Jan

osu natl champs 2015

Congratulations to the Ohio St Buckeyes, the 2014 National Champions.  Following outstanding performances over their last three games, I cannot think of a more deserving champ.  As much as I hate to say it about a university that arrogantly prides itself on emphasizing the “The” in their name, Ohio St looked completely dominant in the Big Ten Championship game and their two playoff games.  The team played with an athletic superiority that college football fans have become accustomed to seeing only in the frontrunners of the SEC.  Ezekiel Elliott ran circles around everyone he faced, the line improved as the season progressed, and the receivers made sure the offense remained balanced no matter who played quarterback.  The defense impressively shut down a typically explosive Oregon offense in the National Championship Game.  These Buckeyes looked nothing like the team the Virginia Tech Hokies – my alma mater – crushed in the Horseshoe this September.  No team improved more than Ohio St this season.

The four-team playoff also proved an unqualified success.  I certainly criticized the playoff prior to its inception.  I created this website as a way to vent that frustration.  However, this season did nothing to support my fears.  I worried that a playoff would create a situation like the NFL playoff where a 12-7 team can defeat a 18-0 team in the final game and claim it had the best season.  I worried that a team could win the playoff and still not have a better season than the VPR champion.  As long as the playoff remains at four teams, that remains an impossibility.  College football still only allows 3% of its teams into its playoff, a number I like far more than the NFL’s 38% (and rising).  That means that any of the four teams, after beating two more double-digit win teams, will have more than enough Victory Points to claim a championship no matter what seed they earn. This would likely hold true even if the playoff expanded.  This season, the champion deserved it and the regular season remained as exciting as ever.

My larger worry lay in the possibility of an undeserving team getting hot at the end of the season, making the playoff with three or more losses, and claiming an undeserved championship.  This happens regularly in the NFL, but I must again look at those playoff percentages.  Since 2010, when I first started this website, no three loss team has finished higher than #8 after the conference championship games.  The playoff could easily expand to six without quality issues and could even consider eight without letting a three loss team in more than once or twice a decade.  I hate to concede these points, but I must remain objective about such a successful college football season.  Even at a gaudy sixteen playoff teams, a number I still cannot fathom supporting, college football would only include 13% of its teams in the playoff.  That still keeps the flash-in-the-pan teams from just getting hot at the right time.

Top Five

As mentioned above, #1 Ohio St earned the National Championship following their 42-20 statement win against Oregon.

The Ducks didn’t drop too far though.  On the strength of a Pac 12 championship and a blowout Rose Bowl victory over Florida St, Oregon finished at #2.

Following the Rose Bowl drubbing, the defending national champion Seminoles fell from the top spot to #3.  One loss does not ruin an otherwise successful season.

#4 Boise St won the Fiesta Bowl… again.  This time they won a hard fought struggle, vanquishing #14 Arizona 38-30.  The Broncos jumped out to a 21-point lead, but needed a sack on the last play of the game with Arizona knocking on the Broncos goal line to seal the victory.  Boise St more than validated their status as the VPR’s first team out from the college football playoff.

The VPR did not like Alabama as much as the opinion polls, definitely not a first with their typically soft non-conference schedules, and the Crimson Tide did nothing to dispel that ranking after a 42-35 loss to #1 Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl.  The SEC Champions still had a better season than most of college football, but they did not have a vintage SEC season the likes of which we have become accustomed to.

Biggest Improvements

Rather than looking at great bowl wins, I want to celebrate the teams that improved more than fifty spots in the final rankings over the 2013 VPR.    The Mountain West led the way with three Cinderellas.  #4 Boise St and #22 Colorado St both came from mediocrity to score double digit wins.  #21 Air Force paced all of FBS with a 97 spot improvement, making the turn-around from 2-10 to 10-3.

The other Group of Five conferences all had one surprise of their own.  Memphis shocked all of college football by winning the AAC, landing head coach Justin Fuente in the middle of a number of coaching searches at Power Five schools.  Lousiana Tech bounced back to win the C-USA West Division.  Western Michigan emerged from the dregs of the Bottom Ten to earn eight wins and a bowl berth.  Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt Conference after playing at the FCS level last year! Unfortunately, due to a quirk in NCAA rules, the Eagles could not participate in a bowl game.

Four teams in the Power Five also made the jump despite the increased degree of difficulty.  Arkansas achieved a winning season and a bowl victory for the first time in three seasons and scored a late season victory over #13 Mississippi.  NC State bounced back from an off season to return to their typical home in a mediocre bowl.  #9 Georgia Tech made a trip to the ACC Championship game, a familiar home over the last decade, and won the Orange Bowl.  #8 TCU finally got the hang of the Big XII, won the Peach Bowl in dominating fashion, and caught the attention of the college football playoff committee after finishing 4-8 in 2013.

Disappointing Falls

We saw far fewer teams take precipitous drops than those scaling the mountain.  I would have to look at the numbers from year to year to see if its an actual trend, but perhaps a single transcendent player or coach can take a team to the heights, while losing a single player or coach cannot disrupt the inertia of a quality program as often.  North Texas had the largest drop – 81 spots from a 9-4 record and a bowl win in 2013 to 4-8 in 2014 – but probably also the least interesting.  Fresno St couldn’t get a handle on their “Anyone. Anytime. Anywhere.” motto this season.  Despite a 5-3 conference record and a berth in the MWC Championship Game, the Bulldogs still finished 6-8.  They went 0-3 against the Power Five to start the season, lost to #4 Boise St twice, and faltered in the Hawaii Bowl against Rice.  Fresno St may not have played any worse than many of their other seasons, but the results did not match their typical expectations.

Two teams fell off the pace in the hyper-competitve SEC.  For no obvious reason, South Carolina plummeted from a Top Ten finish in 2013 and 2014 National Championship aspirations to utter mediocrity.  The rapid decline has many questioning whether 69-year-old Head Coach Steve Spurrier has lost a step and if the Gamecocks’ Golden Age has finally ended.  Of course, Vanderbilt would love to have back the kind of season that USC just had.  The Commodores became accustomed to poor football over their decades in the SEC, but after three consecutive bowl appearances and back-to-back 9-4 seasons under Head Coach James Franklin, the Vanderbilt faithful began to believe they could grab something more.  Unfortunately, Franklin left to coach Penn St last offseason and apparently took the magic with him.  In 2014, Vanderbilt crashed to 3-9 and had middle-aged fans throwing their Commodore shirts onto the field and storming out of the stadium in topless disgust.

Final Standings

(Scroll to the bottom for conference rankings)

Team Record Victory Points
1. Ohio St 14-1 105
2. Oregon 13-2 83
3. Florida St 13-1 82
4. Boise St 12-2 76
5. Alabama 12-2 74
6. Marshall 13-1 64
7. UCLA 10-3 63
8. TCU 12-1 62
9. Georgia Tech 11-3 62
10. Michigan St 11-2 57
11. Missouri 11-3 57
12. Wisconsin 11-3 55
13. Mississippi 9-4 54
14. Arizona 10-4 52
15. Baylor 11-2 49
16. Georgia 10-3 49
17. Arizona St 10-3 46
18. Mississippi St 10-3 45
19. Clemson 10-3 45
20. USC 9-4 40
21. Air Force 10-3 38
22. Colorado St 10-3 37
23. Utah 9-4 37
24. Northern Illinois 11-3 36
25. Auburn 8-5 36
26. Kansas St 9-4 33
27. Nebraska 9-4 30
28. Louisville 9-4 30
29. Notre Dame 8-5 30
30. Memphis 10-3 29
31. Utah St 10-4 28
32. Louisiana Tech 9-5 28
33. Cincinnati 9-4 26
34. LSU 8-5 25
35. Texas A&M 8-5 25
36. Stanford 8-5 24
37. Oklahoma 8-5 24
38. Western Kentucky 8-5 24
39. Minnesota 8-5 23
40. NC State 8-5 23
41. Navy 8-5 23
42. Arkansas 7-6 23
43. Toledo 9-4 22
44. Louisiana-Lafayette 9-4 21
45. Rutgers 8-5 20
46. Georgia Southern 9-3 18
47. Florida 7-5 18
48. Tennessee 7-6 17
49. UCF 9-4 16
50. BYU 8-5 15
51. Rice 8-5 14
52. Duke 9-5 14
53. Virginia Tech 7-6 14
54. Penn St 7-6 12
55. West Virginia 7-6 10
56. Boston College 7-6 9
57. Maryland 7-6 8
58. Oklahoma St 7-6 8
59. South Carolina 7-6 7
60. Western Michigan 8-5 6
61. Miami (FL) 6-7 6
62. Bowling Green 8-6 4
63. Nevada 7-6 3
64. Washington 8-6 3
65. North Carolina 6-7 2
66. Houston 8-5 1
67. Illinois 6-7 1
68. Texas 6-7 1
69. East Carolina 8-5 0
70. Middle Tennessee 6-6 -2
71. UTEP 7-6 -2
72. Michigan 5-7 -3
73. Iowa 7-6 -5
74. Old Dominion 6-6 -6
75. Virginia 5-7 -6
76. Arkansas St 7-6 -7
77. UAB 6-6 -8
78. Texas St 7-5 -9
79. Kentucky 5-7 -9
80. Central Michigan 7-6 -10
81. Northwesten 5-7 -10
82. Appalachian St 7-5 -11
83. Temple 6-6 -11
84. San Diego St 7-6 -11
85. Pittsburgh 6-7 -12
86. South Alabama 6-7 -12
87. Ohio 6-6 -13
88. California 5-7 -14
89. Oregon St 5-7 -14
90. Fresno St 6-8 -15
91. Wyoming 4-8 -20
92. Indiana 4-8 -21
93. Ball St 5-7 -23
94. New Mexico 4-8 -23
95. Texas Tech 4-8 -25
96. Buffalo 5-6 -28
97. Akron 5-7 -28
98. Washington St 3-9 -28
99. UTSA 4-8 -29
100. South Florida 4-8 -30
101. Syracuse 3-9 -31
102. Southern Miss 3-9 -31
103. Louisiana-Monroe 4-8 -31
104. Purdue 3-9 -32
105. Florida Internaitonal 4-8 -33
106. Wake Forest 3-9 -33
107. Vanderbilt 3-9 -34
108. Kansas 3-9 -34
109. Tulane 3-9 -34
110. Florida Atlantic 3-9 -35
111. Colorado 2-10 -36
112. Army 4-8 -39
113. Iowa St 2-10 -42
114. Kent St 2-9 -44
115. San Jose St 3-9 -45
116. North Texas 4-8 -46
117. Troy 3-9 -46
118. Hawaii 4-9 -46
119. Tulsa 2-10 -49
120. Eastern Michigan 2-10 -49
121. Miami (OH) 2-10 -50
122. Connecticut 2-10 -52
123. SMU 1-11 -53
124. Massachusetts 3-9 -55
125. UNLV 2-11 -56
126. Idaho 1-10 -58
127. Georgia St 1-11 -61
128. New Mexico St 2-10 -63

Conference Rankings

I thought that despite a strong regular season showing from the SEC West, the SEC as a whole might prove vulnerable.  Maybe this year, the Pac 12 could break the SEC’s run of eight consecutive years as the best conference in football.  We sorely overestimated the demise of the SEC.  The conference took top honors by more than a hundred points.  The second best conference landed closer to the #4 ACC than the SEC.

As for the Pac 12, they couldn’t even overcome a surprisingly strong Big Ten.  Ohio St certainly helped the conference reach such heights, but even if you eliminate the advantage that Ohio St had over Oregon, the clear elite of each organization, the Big Ten still edges by the Pac 12.  More than just the home of a National  Champion, the Big Ten and its ten bowl teams looked impressive from top to bottom.

A clear divide emerged this year between the Big XII and the rest of the Power Five with the Big XII 119 points behind the tight pack of the Big Ten, Pac 12, and ACC.  It makes it that much clearer why #8 TCU and #15 Baylor got left out of the playoff.  They both started with mediocre to poor non-conference schedules and lacked the quality opponents to catch up in conference play.

The MWC once again represents for college football’s middle class.  If you drop UNLV from the conference, the Mountain West jumps into positive victory points, passing the typical dividing line between the power conferences and the mid-majors.  This year C-USA joined them in the middle class, thanks in large part to the impressive showing by #6 Marshall.

At the bottom of the barrel, the AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt can make no excuses for their performances.  Each conference landed three teams in the bottom ten of the standings, with the Sun Belt, this years winner (or loser) for worst conference, claiming the three worst teams in the country: #126 Idaho, #127 Georgia St (2013’s worst team in the country), and #128 New Mexico St.

Conference Victory Points
SEC 387
Big Ten 282
Pac 12 256
ACC 205
Big XII 86
MWC -34
C-USA -62
AAC -157
MAC -232
Sun Belt -259

The VPR and Bowl Game Predictions

I have never claimed any predictive quality in the VPR and I never will.  I intend only to measure which teams have had the most impressive and deserving seasons to date.  However, this year, I decided to try a little experiment.  I entered the VPR into the confidence rankings for ESPN.com Capital One Bowl Mania.  I selected the team with more victory points heading into bowl season to win and I assigned a confidence rating depending on the distance between the two totals.

The results exceeded my wildest expectations.  Of the thousands and thousands of entries, the VPR finished #762, in the top 99.8%.  I entered the Solid Verbal podcast pool and finished in second, behind by a mere two points among hundreds of diehard college football fans.  Strangely enough, I could have performed even better if I had gone against the VPR and selected my Alma Mater to win.  The VPR marked a larger separation between favored Cincinnati and underdog Virginia Tech than any other game this season.  When my inconsistent alma mater pulled off the upset, it cost the VPR 39 points in the confidence pool.  I certainly enjoyed the experiment, but I might want to test the VPR on a few more seasons before I start wagering money on it.